The Crises Group calls for an end to the diplomatic chaos to resolve the Sudanese crisis
Moatinoon
The International Crisis Group has stated that a narrow window for dialogue to cease the fighting in Sudan has opened amidst the successive changes in military dynamics. They urge external parties to coordinate their efforts urgently to push the warring parties to halt hostilities and overcome the current state of diplomatic chaos. The external actors must seize every opportunity to bring the parties back to the negotiating table before its too late, considering all the looming risks, from state collapse to escalating atrocities and their spillage into neighboring countries.
The situation in Sudan is described by the group as teetering on the brink of collapse due to the conflict, with fears of further parts of the country slipping into violence beyond the capital.
According to their recent report, The losses suffered by the army on the battlefield and in its besieged garrisons give it a strong incentive to talk. Similarly, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) narrow support base, poor standing internally and externally, and their slim prospects of forcibly controlling all of Sudan mean they, too, long needed a negotiated settlement.
The group calls on external actors to work in coordination to persuade the parties of this logic, emphasizing that the United States, Saudi Arabia, and others will need to pool their efforts in a more coordinated manner and with a greater sense of urgency than they have done so far.
The report points out the RSFs siege of the General Command of the Armed Forces, stating that even if the military headquarters were to fall and Burhan killed or arrested, the conflict might not end. This is due to the armys continued control of large areas on the outskirts of Khartoum, including the sister city Omdurman, as well as other parts of the country, particularly in the east and north. The RSF faces its own specific vulnerabilities, such as meandering supply lines from Darfur in the west, lack of aerial capabilities, and the deep animosity it has provoked among many Sudanese, including most Khartoum residents.
The group further emphasizes that any truce and agreement between the conflicting parties, both of which are unpopular among many Sudanese, may prove challenging to implement on the ground.
They also state that both sides have committed heinous crimes, with the army repeatedly shelling densely populated neighborhoods in Khartoum, and the RSF and its allies engaging in brutal looting and using sexual violence against women and girls, committing other grave violations in Khartoum and other areas. The group affirms that the alternative to ending the battles through negotiations is more war and further suffering for the Sudanese, with the potential for a broader state collapse to engulf the Horn of Africa and the Sahel region.
