Social fabric tearing apart... A warning bell
Mashair Idris
Politicians and leaders of armed movements have stated that Sudan is facing a different and highly dangerous political and social polarization, especially after the assassination of the West Darfur governor last month and the selective displacement of the Masalit tribe from their area.
This reality has brought Darfur back to the events of 2003 and 2004, and there are indications of an impending civil war, not only in Darfur, which suffers from fragility in its social fabric, but in the entire country.
Schemes of the Former Regime
Maher Abu al-Joukh, a leader in the Forces of Freedom and Change, said that a civil war is likely due to the schemes of the former regime, which seeks to empower its elements and gain control of the state, even if only partially in some regions.
He added that this is evident from the populist mobilization rhetoric that stirs up and revives racial and regional divisions to perpetuate this war. This rhetoric will lead the country towards a full-fledged civil war if it continues to grow.
Abu al-Joukh clarified that although the populist rhetoric promoted by the former regime might find fertile ground, it is weak. He pointed out that as soon as their symbols appear, the rhetoric and those calls will collapse and take significant steps back because people are not willing to give the remnants a new chance.
He said, Therefore, even if a civil war erupts, the first to bear the brunt and be consumed by it will be the former regime, which has not learned or taken lessons from previous experiences.
On the other hand, the spokesperson for the Justice and Equality Movement, Hassan Ibrahim Mufaddal, considers that the atrocities committed in the Khartoum protests will not go unnoticed. He foresees a likely comprehensive civil war, given the objective circumstances.
He added, All the causes of war and division are still present, without any bold and courageous discussion by the concerned political forces.
The spokesperson for Justice and Equality further stated, We expected all political forces, especially the Forces of Freedom and Change - Central Bloc, to conduct a comprehensive review of their positions.
He predicted that the alliance, after the war, would face objective criticism for the mistakes it made in its attempt to monopolize the political scene and the political process through the Framework Agreement, which divided society into different levels of political effectiveness and distributed revolutionary certificates.
He said, Unfortunately, our country is heading towards rampant chaos, and the primary factor is regional and tribal alignment. Its effects will not be limited within the borders and may extend to neighboring countries, given the presence of thousands of foreign elements fighting and looting citizens from neighboring countries. The most dangerous thing is the presence of forces opposing neighboring countries in the scene.
However, there is an extremely dangerous aspect, which is the enthusiastic activity of the Rapid Support Forces to seize control of the protectorates in Darfur and Kordofan. News in North Kordofan talks about the appointment of a commissioner for the region affiliated with the Rapid Support Forces. This is the scenario that occurred in Geneina when the deputy governor, who was dismissed by the governor before his assassination, was reinstated due to his activities and fundamental violations.
All these indicators point to a plan to tear the country apart on tribal and regional bases.
Dual Military and Civilian Tracks
A human rights activist (name withheld for sensitivity reasons) sees that the stage is characterized by more than one party: the armed forces, the Rapid Support Forces, the Islamic movement and its political wing, the National Congress Party, and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement led by Abdulwahid al-Nur, in addition to civilian bodies like the Radical Change Bloc and the Freedom and Change Alliance with its two wings. All these actors are moving along both military and political tracks. The activist pointed out that all these movements are not cohesive since the military aspect has become faster, broader, and more influential.
He clarified that the talks in Jeddah, as a platform, did not pay attention to the various and wide complexities. It seemed like an experimental attempt to achieve a ceasefire between the two main parties while excluding other parties that could have contributed to strengthening the ceasefire, such as representatives from professional unions like doctors, pharmacists, and lawyers, among others.
The absence of reliable data from the main conflict parties, the army and the Rapid Support Forces in particular, provided an opportunity for the media affiliated with these parties to promote and broadcast news that aligned with their respective positions, further distancing the possibility of reaching solutions.
He pointed out that the presence of military headquarters for both parties inside cities and urban areas, and then the transfer of the conflict to peaceful suburbs, whether by turning them into military headquarters or by bombarding them, contributed to creating various violations.
He highlighted that this prolonged and prolonged the duration of the war, as using civilian residences as military bases led to displacement, refuge, looting, killings, and other violations, including aerial bombings.
He believes that the media discourse associated with the parties has reinforced the polarization, and paved the way for a potentially inciting political escalation with the emergence of the Islamic movement, the National Congress Party, and calls for civil mobilization.
The proliferation of subsequent political platforms resulted in the absence of a comprehensive map for dealing with the comprehensive crisis, especially the various civilian initiatives that relied on individuals or groups without emerging from the umbrella of a qualified and neutral national party or organization, contributing to the multiplication and duplication of initiatives.
He pointed to the horizontal movement in the overall political scene due to the absence of a national center that could form a consensus, even if based on a majority perspective.
He believes that what happened in Genena and Kla Klai revealed that the tearing of the social fabric is now creeping into other areas, entering a stage of escalation that necessitates serious and conscious attention to its consequences.
