El Burhan Facing the Bedrum Coup

Abdullah Rizq Abu Seemazah

General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, in his speech on Thursday before the United Nations General Assembly, ignored the call for an immediate ceasefire, which the neighboring countries had unanimously emphasized during their meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly sessions. The speech was described by the Central Alliance of Freedom and Change as disappointing.

This stance can be seen as an indication of al-Burhans insensitivity to the humanitarian tragedy that is capturing the worlds attention. Millions of Sudanese people who have suffered and continue to suffer from the ongoing war are waiting for assistance, urgent relief, and, above all, an end to the war to escape the hell of senseless conflict.

So, where is al-Burhan heading? It appears that the General is avoiding a specific vision, a roadmap for a ceasefire, the protection of civilians, assistance to the affected, and ultimately ending hostilities. Instead, he seems to be maintaining a delicate balance between the war hawks on one side and keeping hidden cards for negotiating with peace mediators on the other.

There are signs of the erosion of this balance between the two sides. According to information from a group calling themselves Journalists for Dignity, there is growing thinking among some Islamists and remnants of the former regime that al-Burhan should be removed from the leadership of the military, citing his slowness or lack of desire to decisively confront the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Its claimed that he did not allow the use of appropriate force to decisively end the battle. This has led to demands for al-Burhans resignation or dismissal if he does not comply, which can be described as the Bedrum Coup. This coup scenario goes beyond General Shams al-Din Kabbashi, who al-Burhan chose as his deputy and is seen by many as close to the Islamists. It also overlooks General Ibrahim Jabir, who al-Burhan nominated as an alternative to him as the army leader, leaving many questions unanswered.

The Bedrum Coup, waiting for al-Burhans return from New York, is not solely based on an assessment of the ongoing war, which has lasted for more than five months without a decisive outcome. It is also based on the possibilities that al-Burhan might exit the siege of the General Command. In contrast to what a senior African Union official, Dr. Mohamed Wed-Labbat, confirmed, which was previously revealed by Lieutenant General (M) Fadlallah Burma Nasser, the leader of the Umma Party. According to them, al-Burhans exit from the siege was achieved through regional and international consensus to enable him to participate in the Jeddah platform negotiations and sign peace agreements.

The war advocates, who may now be racing against time to block the Jeddah path, seek to place al-Burhan before two options: resignation or dismissal. Failing that, they might push for a refusal to negotiate, followed by an escalation of military operations, including the launch of a decisive force that has been held back.

Revealing this line of thinking, with its potential for mobilization and incitement against al-Burhan, shares some similarities with the war scenario. After igniting the confrontation within the military component (al-Burhan versus Hemeti), the plotters are now taking steps to ignite a new war, a war within the war, among what remains of the military component (al-Burhan versus Yasser al-Atta, initially).