Ending the War (Miligicia) in Sudan Requires Negotiating with the Elephant
Faisal Al-Bager
First Orbit:
The war will end, and the leaders will shake hands... but that old woman will still be waiting for her martyred son, and that young woman will still be waiting for her beloved husband. And those children will be waiting for their heroic father. I dont know who sold the homeland, but I have seen who paid the price! - Mahmoud Darwish
1- Day by day, month by month, it becomes clear to everyone - leaving no room for doubt - that the parties to the war, the Miligicia, which has been raging since its outbreak on April 15, 2023, between the Rapid Support Forces and the army, are still insisting on continuing their disastrous war towards more madness. There is a lot of recklessness, waste, and drowning in the mazes of aimless and cursed fighting, indifferent to the fate of the homeland - Sudan Al-Fadl - which has begun to be attacked and besieged with great force, harshness, and cruelty. The specter of division and the virus of decay, or rather the syndrome of decomposition, will inevitably grip it if this cursed war does not end soon, and before its too late!
2- The phrases soon and very soon are seen by the optimists - lets say most of them, or some of them - as an indication that serious negotiations between the leaders of both sides will begin, either in Jeddah or in other proposed initiatives, by the end of this month or at the beginning of November next year (2023). To ensure success, negotiations should be fruitful, honest, and unconditional, leading to the complete cessation of the war within the remaining two months of 2023. Otherwise, the chances of keeping Sudan Al-Fadl unified and one will decrease, and the chances of division will increase, or rather, the country will be turned into small cantons controlled by various militia leaders practicing a hands-on policy that will make it difficult to reunite the scattered parts of the nation later on.
3- Many observers believe that the dream of ending the war may only be realized when the fighters of both sides lose their appetite to continue fighting, reaching a stage of balance of weakness or what is known militarily as war fatigue. This is due to the more noticeable depletion in both human and military assets that is now clearer than before. This includes the destruction or depletion of strategic stockpiles remaining in the arsenal of both sides. This is a result of the inevitable expansion of areas and circles of indiscriminate shelling at all likely places where military warehouses are expected, following the example of Samson the Mighty (against myself and against my enemies). Or it could come through a sudden halt to the support and supply that arrives from abroad, benefiting from the continuation of the war through different methods and styles. These external agendas have become known and exposed over time to everyone.
-4- If this claim, if true, is a clear indicator and evidence of the prevailing mentality of military childhood or military adolescence still entrenched in the minds and intellects of those who hold the reins of power, situations, and difficult decisions in the war management rooms on both sides. They promote this with the naivety of strategic or stratagem experts. We have seen them continuously filling the Arab television screens with military propaganda and stale and expired military propaganda, more than analytical insights into a living and ongoing military reality. Or even scientific analyses based on available military facts, numbers, statistics, and information. It is more of a result of objective conclusions achieved through the serious intellectual and academic research perspective on the issues of war and peace, as we observe in the analyses of professional non-Sudanese military experts talking about the fates and outcomes of wars and combat battles taking place in other parts of the world.
-5- We still remember and remind how the leaders of the two sides in the war, the army and the Rapid Support Forces, thought and planned, or lets not say planned, considered this war to be short-lived. In their intelligence estimates (which were manipulated), they saw it as nothing more than a surprise battle that might last for a few hours, in which they would completely defeat the other side with a decisive blow. A blow that inflicts suffering and makes them taste the bitter flavor of defeat, allowing everything to return under the complete control of the victor. Afterward, he would impose his agenda and control over everyone, both military and civilian. However, it has become clear to them, as we have always learned from the lessons of wars, that getting out of the circles of war is not like entering its narrow mazes.
-6- The current reality confirms that rational thinking to end this war, stop the sound of cannons, and the bombing of planes forever requires new thinking. Perhaps it will roll the war ball back to the main arena, which is reaching the sources instead of wasting more time complying with the wishes of the leaders and commanders of the drains. In other words, it means the importance of thinking about making more effort to engage in dialogue with the sponsors of this war and the real beneficiaries of its prolonged duration, expanding its possible scope. Without a doubt, they have regional and international power that lies beyond borders. These powers have become known to everyone. So why waste time and effort waiting for leaks and counter-leaks from those who do not possess the real will to stop the war and cannot make courageous and bold decisions that look at the fate of the nation, not individual gains and losses?
-7- It seems that the unspoken truth in this ongoing militia war in Sudan is that it should be correctly and most accurately described as a war being waged by both sides by proxy rather than by authenticity. On a potential Jeddah platform, if it happens, efforts should be made to explore how to convince the wars sponsors to stop supplying both warring parties with weapons, war material, deadly weaponry, and substantial funds, both materially and morally. Additionally, it also requires quick thinking on how to deal with those operating within Sudan, prolonging the war for their narrow interests. We particularly refer here to the remnants of the old regimes militias, under various names and symbols, and their warlords.
-8- There is a highly sensitive issue that must be emphasized in any serious efforts to end the war, and it is not compromising on the matter of accountability and responsibility for all those who committed war crimes, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing, and genocide. Escaping punishment will hinder the process of reaching the optimal and long-lasting solution. This will weaken the possibilities of achieving social coexistence and recovery leading to sustainable stability. Therefore, the issue of justice and fairness for the victims must be at the heart of the agenda for ending the war, and stability should not be compromised by escaping punishment.
-9- As we write today, Monday, the second of October 2023, it is essential for all of us to engage in collective thinking about issues related to ending the war. These include the complex economic, social, and political issues that arise after the war ends. All of these issues are equally important. We should start today, without delay or underestimating the importance of answering the two legitimate questions: How do we stop the war, and what comes after stopping the war? With this practical and realistic approach, we will have taken the first step on the right path to ending the war. On that day, the war will lay down its burdens, and Sudan will overcome the threat of division and fragmentation, through actions, not just words.
Final Note: How terrible is the warrior who reaps his foes * in her arena, and dawn for the crowns... How ugly it is for a person to kill his neighbor * and say, This is the way of civilization. - Elias Abu Maadi.
