Impact of Climate Change on Vegetation Cover in Eastern Sudan

Editing: El Fatih Abdullah Dawood, Tayeb Mohamed Abdullah, Thanaa Abdeen, Asjad Abdel Matlub.

Abstract:
Some regions in Sudan are witnessing the phenomenon of desertification, which eliminates green spaces and increases the area of land covered by sand. This report aims to assess the development of this phenomenon over time in the states of Gedaref and Kassala, its correlation with climate change, and its economic and social impact on the population.

Decline of Vegetation Cover in Gedaref: Numbers and Facts
The state of Gedaref is located within the geographic coordinates of the Sahel, between latitude and longitude "14°02N 35°23E," bordering Ethiopia.

Gedarefs Boundaries:
Gedaref is rich in agricultural resources and contributes significantly to Sudans gross domestic product (GDP) through the production of various crops. The cultivated areas include 5.5 million acres of corn, 998 thousand acres of sesame, 585 thousand acres of sorghum, 115 thousand acres of peanuts, 110 thousand acres of rainfed cotton, 56 thousand acres of sunflower, 7,300 acres of soybeans, and 57 thousand acres of watermelon. However, climate change remains a concern for farmers and authorities, as it has a clear impact on vegetation cover in Sudan.

Khalid Hashem Ibrahim, the coordinator of the Adaptation to Living and Climate Change project at the Ministry of Production and Economic Resources in Gedaref, revealed that climate change has led to a reduction in the areas allocated for agriculture and the retreat of forests in the state. Ibrahim pointed out that climate change has caused consecutive waves of drought, floods, and torrents in Gedaref and El Butana, resulting in the removal of vegetation cover and a decrease in rainfall. He added that this has led to the migration of residents from affected areas to mining areas in search of livelihoods. Ibrahim mentioned that Gedaref conducted its first study on the impact of climate change in 2004, identifying El Butana locality as the most affected.

Climate Change and the Disappearance of Plant Species
Ammar Abdullah Suleiman, an expert in climate change at the Agricultural Research Corporation, affirmed that climate change has led to the loss of soil with essential nutritional properties in Gedaref. Since 2002, the state has lost approximately 16 types of food plants, including sorghum, tibra, daraya, ruzza, alwika alafrat, and camels wika, due to negative human intervention and an increase in plant diseases affecting animal health. Suleiman emphasized that this has resulted in a reduction in cultivated areas and a decline in vegetation cover in the state.

A study conducted in 2014 revealed various signs of land degradation in Gedaref, reflecting changes in soil chemical properties.

Current State of Forests:
Hashem Abdullah, the director of the State Forest Authority in Gedaref, painted a grim picture of the state and national forests, covering an area of two million acres, out of the total agricultural land in Gedaref, according to the Agricultural Authority. Abdullah added that among these cultivated areas are 52 forests, totaling 283 thousand acres, while the registered national forests comprise 14 national forests, covering more than one million acres.

Abdullah sounded the alarm regarding the intense campaigns and systematic destruction that the forestry sector in Gedaref is facing. He pointed to the involvement of some government agencies, as he described it, in unauthorized logging for charcoal production and municipal oven fuel in a "destructive" manner. Abdullah highlighted the commitment of the State Forest Authority to continuous reforestation through the Belt Trees project, which started in 1993 with funding from an unspecified Sydney-based company. Later, the project evolved into a legislative decree obligating farmers to allocate 10 percent of each agricultural project for planting acacia and talh trees. The project is financed through a financial fee named the Belt Trees Support Fund. However, the insufficient amount and the bureaucracy of the Ministry of Finance have become major obstacles threatening the Belt Trees project.

However, the National Forest Authority stated that the cultivated area in Gedaref exceeds 15 million acres, with forest area exceeding 3 million acres, representing 21 percent of the total area of the state, which is 71 million acres.

Engineer Abdul Hamid Al-Awad, the director of the Mechanized Agriculture Authority in Gedaref, described climate change in detail, encompassing rainfall, evaporation, solar radiation, wind speed, and temperatures. These factors contribute to the phenomenon of climate change in the fall season. Al-Awad emphasized the integral process by which climate affects vegetation cover based on rainfall rates, temperatures, and the spread and density of plant cover.

The Relationship Between Vegetation Cover and Climate:
Climate has a significant impact on plants and all water surfaces, leading to a mutual relationship. Water vapor released into the air by vegetation influences the climate, creating changes in surface energy flows and, consequently, cloud formation.

Climate Characteristics in Kassala:
The climate in Kassala tends toward the arid tropical, characterized by high daytime temperatures and significant nighttime drops. Temperatures range between 33 and 47 degrees Celsius, with a notable decrease during the winter season. Long periods of heatwaves, particularly dry winds and sandstorms, are common.

Like many regions in Sudan and around the world, Kassala faces the challenges of climate change, becoming a global issue. Parts of the state have felt the impact of desertification, which struck the region in the last decades of the previous century, causing significant changes in its geographical nature. This led to a reduction in vegetation density in some areas, with noticeable soil coverage by sand, as seen in the Qoz Rajab areas near the Atbara River in the west of Kassala city and in the northern areas of the Aroma region up to Dardib on the border with the Red Sea State.

Climate Change Indicators:
Over the past thirty years, Kassala has experienced a significant rise in temperature indicators above the natural average, accompanied by increased rainfall in the southern part of the state. This has been coupled with a decline in the groundwater level of the Qash River, negatively impacting the Swaki sector, which relies on pump irrigation and consequently leading to a decline in vegetation cover. The encroachment of desertification in the northern regions of the state has resulted in the disappearance of some pasture plants, increased human and animal diseases.

A 2017 study by the Hydraulic Research Center reported a general trend of declining groundwater levels in the Qash basin due to increased pumping and poor management of the groundwater layer.

Seasonal Flooding Phenomenon:
The Qash River is a notable natural feature in Kassala, originating from the Eritrean highlands, passing through Ethiopia, and flowing into Sudan. It is a seasonal river, flooding from June to October each year. Increased rainfall in the Eritrean highlands elevates water levels in the river, raising the risk of flooding that threatens many villages north of the state. Flooding causes mass migrations and significant property losses. Simultaneously, the desertification wave has hit wide areas of the state, causing significant changes in the regions geography.

Expert Insights and Conclusion:
Dr. Khader Ramadan, a climate impact specialist, highlighted the annual southward movement of the desertification front at a rate of approximately 2 kilometers due to the activity of northwest winds. This has led to increased population migration in search of agricultural and pasture areas, in addition to the impact of the Qash River floods.

In conclusion, climate change affects the vegetation cover in the states of Gedaref and Kassala, negatively impacting natural pastures and animal wealth. Climate change also affects the groundwater reserve of the Qash basin. Therefore, it is crucial for governments and stakeholders to focus on providing support to adapt to these phenomena and find effective solutions to protect citizens from these impacts.

Water, Agriculture, and Animal Wealth Sector:
Khalid pointed out that the study indicated the disappearance of many plants that constitute a food source for animals, such as "Alsahee" and "Alsafer," due to climate change, affecting the animal wealth sector and the quality of pastures. Rainfall rates also decreased below the natural average, ranging between 200 and 250 mm per year, impacting the future of the agricultural and forestry sector.

A study titled "Climate Variability and Change Affect Crop Productivity under Rainfed Conditions: A Case Study in Gedaref State, Sudan," highlighted that the annual rainfall level in Gedaref ranges between 200 to 800 mm.

Images:

Satellite images illustrating the region between Dardib and Aroma.
Map outlining sector boundaries.
Image of the Alsafer plant.