Al Fasher: A City Awaiting its Fate Amidst the Hooves of Three Armies
moatinoon
The sudden control exerted by the Rapid Support Forces over the majority of the Darfur region has drawn attention to the city of Fasher, the last stronghold of the Sudanese Armed Forces in the vast region. Crowds and statements from the Rapid Support Forces leaders indicate that the attack on the headquarters of the Sixth Infantry Division, the last army base in the region located in the city center, is only a matter of time. These developments have created a state of tense anticipation and nervousness inside and outside Sudan.
The city, unlike other cities in the region, holds special significance due to its overcrowded population of displaced individuals from various parts of the region. Additionally, it is the only city where three armies coexist (army, rapid support, and movements). Moreover, it serves as the main headquarters for regional governments, in addition to its symbolism as the historical capital of Darfur, which has played a significant role in political decision-making throughout the ages.
Due to this unique situation, it has captured the attention of the United States, which urged the conflicting parties this month to "immediately cease further attacks in Fasher and its surroundings and fulfill their obligations under international humanitarian law regarding civilians." It stated, "Reliable reports reveal that the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces have not taken necessary measures to avoid civilian casualties in the residential areas of Fasher."
Fasher: The Largest Center for Displaced People and Armies
Currently, attention is focused on the fate of hundreds of thousands of displaced people in the city. Any attack on it would cause a major humanitarian crisis, perhaps larger than Khartoum, at a time when serious violations against the residents in western Darfur are still fresh in memory. While Khartoum residents can evacuate to wide and safe areas, Fasher residents and displaced individuals do not have this advantage. What are the numbers of displaced people, where do they come from, and where do they reside in the city?
Fasher is the "Khartoum" of Darfur as it is the seat of authority and has significant infrastructure developments rapidly evolving due to its previous role as the headquarters for the international peace mission "UNAMID." With a population exceeding one million, it is also home to the largest and most important displacement camps before the current war, hosting around half a million displaced people in well-known camps such as Abuja, Zamzam, Abushouk, Kassab, Nifasha, and others. Additionally, hundreds of thousands of newly displaced people from neighboring villages and cities, including Nyala, El Geneina, Zalingei, Kutum, and Kebkabiya, have sought refuge in Fasher due to the war in recent months.
In the first week of July alone, 15,600 displaced individuals out of the 170,000 recorded since April 15 arrived, coming from the Tawila locality and taking shelter in 13 schools in the Zamzam and Salam camps for internally displaced people. There is a shortage of health supplies and other aid throughout the state, according to the United Nations.
This massive number of displaced individuals has gradually increased with the escalation of wars, leading to the expansion of some of these camps into vast areas. For example, the Zamzam camp is divided into four sections based on the dates of wars in the region. The first section accommodates those displaced in 2003, the second for those displaced in 2009, the third for those displaced between 2011 and 2013, and the fourth for those displaced in 2014 and 2015, and so on.
This means that any outbreak of war in the city and its surroundings will lead to a humanitarian crisis, as residents and displaced individuals already suffer from a severe lack of life necessities, in addition to occasional violent incidents resulting in loss of lives and property. In the event of armed confrontations, this time it will be more intense than any other region in the area, given the presence of three armies (the army, rapid support, and armed movements).
Size and Deployment of the Armies
In the latest statistics on the number of forces present in the city and their deployment locations, Darfur 24 reported, citing "sources within all military parties, both inside and outside, journalists, and citizens in Fasher and localities in the state," the following:
Sudanese Army
The Sudanese Armed Forces are stationed inside the headquarters of the Sixth Infantry Division in the center of Fasher, in addition to their presence at the citys airport to the west. There, an anti-aircraft unit and a few lightly armed elements are stationed, strategically positioned in case of combat. The size of the divisions forces is approximately 6,000 soldiers and officers at full capacity. However, the forces have lost a significant number of personnel and bases to the Rapid Support Forces, either through killing, capture, or withdrawal. Despite this, the army in Fasher retains its military vehicles and various weapons distributed in the areas where it is stationed.
Rapid Support Forces
After its initial attack on April 15 and subsequent assaults, the Rapid Support Forces repositioned themselves east and north of Fasher, controlling neighborhoods such as Solidarity, the Institute, the Stock Exchange, the land port, the eastern entrance (Khartoum-Fasher road), and the northern entrance linking Milleit and Fasher. These entrances are crucial strategic locations for the entry of goods and supplies into the city. The Rapid Support Forces also control the surrounding areas from all sides, allowing their soldiers to move in all directions. They can transport weapons, equipment, and food into and out of Fasher as they please, opposing their adversary, the army.
According to sources within the forces, the Rapid Support Forces maintain a force of at least 2,000 soldiers and officers, and this number remains constant despite changes in personnel and officers, following the directives of the operations command. The Rapid Support Forces have positioned 160 vehicles carrying heavy weapons, in addition to ground artillery, armored vehicles, and anti-aircraft weapons. These vehicles only move when necessary for mechanical or tactical reasons. After gaining control of the army base in El Geneina, the Rapid Support Forces increased their numbers of soldiers and combat vehicles, freely roaming the areas under their control.
Sudan Liberation Army - Minni Minnawi Faction
In addition to the Justice and Equality Movement and the Sudan Liberation Army led by Abdelwahid Mohamed Nur, the Sudan Liberation Army led by Minni Minnawi is the third armed movement in terms of its historical presence. It separated from Abdelwahid Nurs movement in December 2005. Armed units from Minni Minnawis movement are stationed within the city of Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. Its headquarters is located inside the former headquarters of the United Nations-African Union mission known as the "Super Camp." According to estimates from sources inside and outside the movement, its strength exceeds 3,500 soldiers, with 1,500 stationed in Fasher. The remaining forces are distributed in localities such as Kornoi, Amro, and Wadi Howar, 180 km northwest of Fasher, and some areas in the Milleit locality.
The movement has approximately 300 four-wheel-drive vehicles, heavy weapons, anti-aircraft weapons, and over 50 armored vehicles. Its field commander, Juma Hagar, holds the rank of general. Some of Minni Minnawis forces collaborate with joint forces from other armed movements to secure facilities, markets, and the headquarters of national and international organizations in Fasher.
Sudan Liberation Forces led by Taher Hajer
The Sudan Liberation Forces, led by dismissed Sovereign Council member Taher Hajer, is considered one of the largest armed factions that signed the Juba Peace Agreement. The forces have more than 200 fighters within the city of Fasher, stationed in the Zamzam displaced camp 17 km southwest of Fasher. The total number of their forces is estimated to be around 4,000 soldiers and officers.
Some of the forces operate within the joint force of armed movements to secure trade convoys and national and international organizations. A significant number of fighters from the Sudan Liberation Forces are present in areas such as Orshi Tank, Um Marahik, and Disi in the Kornoi locality, 150 km northwest of Fasher. The movement possesses around 350 to 500 combat vehicles, anti-aircraft weapons, and over 50 armored vehicles, according to sources within the movement speaking to Darfur 24.
Justice and Equality Movement led by Jibril Ibrahim
The Justice and Equality Movement, led by Jibril Ibrahim, the current Minister of Finance, is one of the important armed movements that signed the Juba Peace Agreement. Jibril Ibrahim split from the movement, with Suleiman Sandal leading a faction. Before the split, the movement was estimated to have around 90 combat vehicles and approximately 800 soldiers. However, the fate of the majority of soldiers and the movements military equipment following the split between Jibril and Sandal remains unknown.
Before the split that occurred after the events of April 15 this year, the movement participated with around 170 soldiers in the joint forces of armed movements to secure trade convoys in Darfur. Justice and Equality Movement forces are stationed inside the "Super Camp" (formerly UNAMID) and are distributed within the city of Fasher, the Milleit locality, Amro, and the town of Tineh on the Sudan-Chad border, as well as the Sudanese border region of Um Jars. The movement has more than 13 armored vehicles, anti-aircraft weapons, modern artillery, and extensive experience in using heavy weapons.
Sudan Liberation Army - Transitional Council led by Al-Hadi Idris
According to sources within the movement, the number of soldiers in the Sudan Liberation Army affiliated with the Transitional Council is more than 500 fighters, stationed within the city of Fasher and extensive parts of the Tawila locality, 55 km northwest of Fasher.
The movement is an integral part of the joint force of armed movements, securing trade convoys and national and international organizations within the city of Fasher. It participates with over 160 soldiers in the joint force. The movement has around 70 combat vehicles and anti-aircraft weapons distributed within the city of Fasher, led on the ground by Commander Mohamed Saleh, famously known as "Jabal Si" and holding the rank of general.
Armed movement forces are deployed at the southern entrance "Nyala - Fasher" and the western entrance "Kutum - Fasher," while the Rapid Support Forces control the eastern entrance from Khartoum and the northern entrance from Milleit. Fasher has four main entrances, but there is no deployment of the army at any of the main or secondary entrances, as it remains entrenched within its command in the city.
Will the Rapid Support Forces Storm the City?
Sudan Watch Monitor quoted the second commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Lt. Gen. Abdel Rahim Hamdan Dagalo, last Saturday, November 25, stating that they had decided to control all military sites belonging to the army in the Darfur region, including Fasher. However, he later clarified, saying, "The advantage of Fasher is that our brothers in the armed movements are there, and this delayed taking control because we agreed with our brothers in the armed struggle that there should be no war in Fasher."
Nevertheless, other reports indicate that the delay in storming the city is only a period of thorough preparation, especially since the army forces will not act alone but will be supported by some armed movements. There are also suggestions that behind-the-scenes negotiations are taking place to hand over the city without a war. It is worth noting that the Rapid Support Forces announced on November 26 that the forces affiliated with Mustafa Tambur, who declared his defection from Taher Hajers movement and joined the fight alongside the army, have joined the Rapid Support Forces. In another move, possibly aimed at influencing the Abdalwahid Nur movement, which joined the armed movements in Fasher, the Rapid Support Forces today announced that "the civil administrations of the Fur tribe have declared their full support for the Rapid Support Forces." These developments may lean towards a "peaceful option" for entering the city, but the final decision remains uncertain in the near future.
