International Rescue Committee: 2024, a Destructive Year for Sudan
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A prominent international relief organization predicted that Sudan would face a devastating crisis in the current year 2024, with no prospect of a solution to end the conflict between the armed forces and the Rapid Support Forces. There is a possibility of the violence spreading increasingly to other parts of the country, attracting a growing number of militants.
Sudan tops the "Emergency Watchlist" for 2024, issued by the International Rescue Committee (IRC), which lists the twenty countries most at risk of exacerbating humanitarian crises in the coming year. The organization stated that the ongoing conflict in Sudan has led to a staggering increase in humanitarian needs in the country.
The "Emergency Watchlist" is an assessment by the International Rescue Committee of the twenty countries most vulnerable to the risk of new humanitarian emergencies each year. It relies on a rigorous analytical process that considers 65 quantitative and qualitative variables, in addition to qualitative insights from the Committees experience working in over 50 countries worldwide to determine the countries that should be included in the list and their ranking.
The International Committee stated that the failure of conflict resolution negotiations, the astonishing increase in overall needs, the significant deterioration in the ability to access humanitarian aid, despite the situation reaching the "Phase 5 classification," bureaucratic constraints imposed by the conflicting parties, disruptions and irregularities in reaching and assisting affected populations, and the significant challenges resulting from relocating aid operation centers to Port Sudan regarding coordination between aid agencies have hindered the humanitarian response as needs continue to grow.
The report painted a grim picture of the situation in four axes: health, economy, food security, and displacement.
Regarding health, the report stated, "The healthcare system suffers from a severe shortage of personnel, funding, and medical supplies, in addition to repeated attacks, looting, and occupation of medical facilities and hospitals. Widespread attacks on healthcare facilities by warring parties have resulted in the closure or non-operation of 70% of health facilities in conflict-affected areas. The movement of populations adds further pressure to the limited remaining healthcare, as well as water and sanitation services. Poor health and sanitation conditions have led to the resurgence of the cholera epidemic in El Gedaref since September 2023, spreading cases throughout Khartoum, South Kordofan, and the Jazeera. Additionally, the sudden spread of measles nationwide has led to the death of over 1000 children. With rising rates of malnutrition, a depleted healthcare system, and decreased immunization levels, the outbreak of diseases will have catastrophic effects, especially on children."
Regarding the economy, the report mentioned, "It is expected to contract by 18.3% in 2023, unemployment has risen, affecting nearly half of the population, and the Sudanese pound has lost at least 50% of its value between April and October 2023. Inflation is expected to rise to over 250% and remain high until 2024, even in the unlikely scenario of conflict resolution. The near-complete disruption of trade, looting, and the decline in agricultural production lead to shortages of essential goods and rising prices, meaning that many Sudanese already facing unemployment and financial difficulties will see further erosion of their purchasing power. The exacerbation of poverty could also pose acute risks to children, as at least 10,400 schools in conflict-affected areas have been closed, leaving around 19 million children without education and exposed to the risks of abuse or exploitation."
The International Committee stated about food security, "Food insecurity is expected to worsen as conflict leads to price increases and disrupts agriculture. Nearly 20.3 million people suffer from crisis-level or worse levels, requiring urgent action to save lives. The widespread displacement leads to a shortage of labor, while input costs, such as fuel, are also rising - potentially disrupting agricultural production. This could lead to crop reductions, pushing food prices higher with continuing conflict and escalating inflationary pressures. Any further expansion of conflict in agricultural areas, especially in the Jazeera state, the breadbasket of Sudan, would have a more significant impact on food supplies, significantly exacerbating the food crisis. At the same time, the looting of food companies and markets will contribute further to food shortages."
The Committee anticipated continued displacement to "extreme levels of internal and external displacement, leading to effects throughout the region. Nearly 6.6 million people have been displaced inside and outside Sudan due to the conflict, and 5.1 million remain displaced in Sudan, bringing the total number of internally displaced persons to over 7 million, the largest internal displacement crisis in the world. At the same time, more than 1.3 million people - mostly women and children - have fled Sudan to neighboring countries, leading in some cases to tensions with host communities. As regional actors face increasing refugee crises and active conflict risks extend to border areas - especially with Chad and South Sudan - there is a high likelihood that the crisis in Sudan will develop into a regional crisis engulfing multiple countries and reaching catastrophic levels of need."
The International Rescue Committee in Sudan added that it has adapted its programs and expanded its response to meet the growing humanitarian needs in Sudan by refocusing on emergency needs-based responses for internally displaced persons through integrated multi-sectoral economic recovery and development; health and nutrition; water, sanitation, and hygiene services; integrated protection services, including comprehensive services for women, girls, and children; and empowerment services, including survivors of gender-based violence in the states of Blue Nile, El Gedaref, Khartoum, and South Kordofan.
The committee has established a new response center in the Jazeera state and a logistics and coordination office in Port Sudan, preparing to launch an emergency response in the White Nile state through multi-purpose cash assistance and water, sanitation, and hygiene services for the displaced, refugees, and host communities. In the coming period, the International Rescue Committee aims to strengthen its presence in new locations, such as the Red Sea and Darfur, to address gaps in humanitarian coverage and expand its integrated multi-sectoral programs in response to the
