How Can Stability Be Restored in Sudan?
By Yousif Abdullah
Nearly twenty months after the outbreak of war in Khartoum between the leaders of the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the political situation has grown increasingly complex and dire, while the country’s economic conditions continue to deteriorate. Despite the prolonged conflict, neither side has achieved a viable political objective, posing a persistent dilemma for the actors involved in this war.
The war originally erupted due to a struggle for power between the leaders of the two forces. However, this objective has become increasingly costly amidst a rapidly shifting regional reality and the involvement of multiple influential states and entities, which continue to impact both sides of the conflict.
Early in the war, mediation efforts began in the Saudi city of Jeddah in May of last year, aimed at ending the fighting. However, these efforts largely failed, apart from a few fragile ceasefires in the initial months, as military confrontations persisted in Darfur and Kordofan. Another mediation attempt, backed by the United States, took place in Geneva last August. However, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan refused to participate, causing that effort to collapse as well.
Against this backdrop, the risk of the conflicts influence spreading beyond Sudan remains a tangible threat, posing a danger to regional stability as a whole.
This concern is compounded by discussions surrounding potential risks to two of the regions most vital waterways: the Nile River and the Red Sea in eastern Sudan.
Currently, Turkey has stepped in to offer mediation between the army’s leader and the Emirati government, with the aim of ending the conflict in Sudan. The army leader has welcomed this mediation initiative, but the UAE has yet to respond. Nevertheless, Turkey appears to be the most qualified mediator to resolve Sudan’s crisis, given its current central position on the regional stage.
Alongside these regional political efforts, there is a growing desire among Sudanese citizens to end the war and to reject any outcome that results in victory for one side over the other. This sentiment is crucial. Therefore, it is imperative to empower political forces—particularly political parties, trade unions, and resistance committees—as these entities hold the key to reviving the democratic transition and laying the groundwork for solutions and long-term stability.
In this turbulent context, the primary challenge is not merely achieving a ceasefire through mediation or formulating agreeable terms for an accord. Rather, the real challenge lies in the actual implementation of these terms and fostering the political will necessary to sustain stability and move forward.
