The Futile War Approaches Its Second Year
Abdullah Rizq Abu Seemaza
Certainly, many people who were shocked by the outbreak of the second, more intense, conflict for power in Khartoum could not believe that what was happening was indeed a war. A war, as they had come to know it, from when Sudan was more a land of war than of peace. Nonetheless, some never imagined that this armed conflict would last more than days, perhaps weeks, before everything returned to normal.
So, why has the conflict persisted and escalated into an almost full-blown civil war, now nearing its second year?
Journalist Maryam Abshir from Sudan’s Al-Rai Al-Aam newspaper was among the many optimists expecting a swift end to the war. Shortly after its outbreak, she left for her hometown of Abu Hamad in northern Sudan to spend Eid al-Fitr with her family. She took nothing with her, leaving everything in place—even neglecting to unplug the refrigerator—believing it would only be "three days" before she returned to her home in Jabra, southern Khartoum. But upon her return, she found that the war had beaten her to her house, destroying everything and obliterating what she called “the work of a lifetime.”
For a long time, especially in the initial months of the war, hopes for a swift peace filled the hearts of Sudanese people. These hopes were fueled by the intense efforts of the international community to end the war and resume the path toward democratic transition. However, as the fighting continued, those hopes dwindled, reflected in the increasing migration and displacement of more than ten million citizens. The widening geography of conflict, lack of essential services, and worsening living conditions exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, with the United Nations estimating that 25 million Sudanese face the threat of famine.
As the war nears its second anniversary in mid-April, no signs indicate its cessation, and its extension into a third year seems likely. Mediation efforts by regional and international actors, fatigued by countless peace initiatives, appear to be awaiting significant developments both within Sudan and on the international and regional fronts to strengthen peace efforts. One such development might be the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, with promises this time to support peace globally, particularly in Gaza and Sudan. This prospect could renew waning hopes, presenting it as a pivotal event for peace efforts, especially those led by the United States. From the very start of this crisis at the helm of Sudan’s transitional authority, Washington has monopolized efforts to contain it and restore the democratic transition.
The obvious answer to the question “Why hasn’t the war ended?” lies in the perceived lack of will for peace by one or both warring parties. However, a potential third party appears to be pushing for a place in any negotiated settlement, potentially through reconciliation or compromise, at the expense of “restoring a civilian-led democratic transition,” which the United States and its peace partners have championed. Furthermore, the slow, ineffective, and ultimately failed international peace efforts have also contributed to the prolongation of the conflict, raising the possibility that it might evolve into a protracted war, similar to those in Yemen or Libya. Such an outcome could involve external interventions and transform Sudan’s internal power struggle into a regional or even international conflict, threatening the countrys unity.
The war has marginalized all civilian forces, leaving them with only a narrow margin for maneuvering—advocating against the war through limited peaceful means and supporting efforts to achieve peace and democratic transition.
The continuation of the war over the past 20 months signifies the failure of the aforementioned efforts to end it. This failure necessitates a review and reevaluation of the visions, proposals, and arrangements tied to these efforts, aiming to improve them and reshape them into a roadmap acceptable to the warring parties. This task awaits the next U.S. administration, potentially under President Trump. Meanwhile, it is expected that renewed international efforts to end the war will be bolstered by tangible support from influential countries and organizations, whose leverage has so far been insufficient to compel the warring parties to embrace peace.
