Expert in International Relations: Israel is Trumps Approach to Sudan
Moatinoon
Reactions to Donald Trumps re-election as President of the United States continue to spark significant debate. The mans ability to stir controversy and exceed expectations seems greater than what can be fully grasped, at least until his short four-year term concludes.
"Moatinoon" continues to gather opinions from various Sudanese individuals regarding their expectations for U.S. policy toward Sudan during Trump’s second term. In this context, "Moatinoon" conducted a brief interview with Dr. Sami Abdel Halim, an expert in law and international relations, former regional director of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, and former legal advisor to the UNISFA forces in the Abyei area disputed between Sudan and South Sudan.
At the beginning of our interview, we asked him to assess Sudans situation, especially following the war during the tenure of outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden. He said, "We did not witness any significant progress on the Sudanese file during Bidens term and the Democrats administration. If we examine closely, there appears to have been a stalling of the peace-building process, evidenced by their withdrawal from the Jeddah talks and the proliferation of negotiations as seen in Bahrain and Geneva."
Regarding the previous administrations communication with Sudanese warring parties and expectations from the new administration, he stated that Bidens administration’s engagement with the Port Sudan government was inadequate. However, there had been prior engagement between the Trump administration and key actors in Sudan, including the government and the Rapid Support Forces. He added, “There was also direct or indirect engagement, considering the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea are regions of significant international interest. Perhaps Trumps administration had stronger ties with the Sudanese army, as the relationship between the two began to grow noticeably during the transitional period.”
This engagement peaked during the signing of the Abraham Accords, where Sudan was included as one of the signatories under the transitional government.
"Moatinoon" notes that Trumps first term saw the beginning of the lifting of trade and economic sanctions on Sudan in the final days of ousted President Omar al-Bashirs rule. This was followed by Sudan’s removal from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism by the end of Trump’s first term.
Dr. Sami Abdel Halim believes that Sudans gateway to relations with the Trump administration will be through its relationship with Israel. He continued, “If we consider that Trump’s government will have a short term of only four years and that his agenda is burdened with priorities, Middle East peace and Israel’s security will be at the top of that list. Given the limited time and numerous tasks during Trump’s second term, we can expect swift actions to achieve these priorities, including addressing the Sudanese file due to its connection to the Abraham Accords.”
He further suggested that the Israeli lobby supporting Trump’s new administration has pressing priorities that Trump will need to accomplish quickly before his term ends, similar to how he strongly supported the relocation of Israel’s capital to Jerusalem during his previous term, despite international resolutions.
Dr. Abdel Halim stated that Trump would work on reorganizing the region through agreements with Israel. The path seems paved for dealing with Sudans military leadership and the government in Port Sudan to achieve quick breakthroughs.
Regarding U.S. intervention to stop the war in Sudan, he remarked that restructuring relations between Washington and Sudan, as mentioned, does not necessarily require halting the war. Instead, it will involve framing the relationship. He added that resolving the war is a complex issue, requiring time and resources, and Trump’s administration does not appear willing to invest money and effort in such a complicated matter.
Dr. Abdel Halim explained that current assessments indicate that the situation under Trump’s administration will not be worse than what was experienced under the Democratic administration. He added, “We should not view Trump as a supporter of Sudanese aspirations for democracy, peace, and stability. Instead, we should focus on what he can realistically achieve during his four years in office.”
He described Trump as a pragmatic figure who does not adhere to slogans related to human rights or freedom but rather pursues clear, well-defined goals that he aims to accomplish swiftly. These objectives are aligned with the interests of the powerful forces that brought him to power to achieve their goals in a short period, something only Trump seems capable of doing.
Regarding the continuation of negotiations among warring parties, he noted that nothing is explicitly outlined in Trump’s agenda about ongoing negotiations, saying, “We will wait and see what the Trump administration has to say.”
As for the Trump administration’s relationship with the Rapid Support Forces and civil groups advocating for a return to democratic transition, Dr. Abdel Halim mentioned that the new administration’s stance remains unclear. He suggested that the pathway between the Trump administration and these forces has not been paved yet, with no signs of announced communication. However, he emphasized that communication between Trump’s administration and key Sudanese stakeholders is likely to begin and become public as Trump’s foreign relations take shape. He also hinted that Trump might visit key regions of interest to his administration, including the Middle East, where he is expected to meet with allies in the region soon.
